Canada–China ties reset, tariff risks grow, and consumer sentiment stays positive

Ian Sinclair

Ian Sinclair

EVP, Commercial Solutions

ISinclair@nls.ca

National Logistics Services
150 Courtneypark Drive West
Mississauga, Ontario

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Mark Carney and Xi Jinping announced a renewed Canada–China strategic partnership focused on trade, energy, and climate cooperation. Birkenstock warned tariffs will pressure margins in fiscal 2026 after earlier mitigation efforts. A Stifel survey shows Canadian spending intentions softened in January, particularly among younger, lower-income, and female shoppers. Retail expansion slowed in 2025, with net store openings up just 0.7% amid tariff and economic pressures. At NRF’s 2026 Big Show, retailers said AI is rapidly embedding across operations despite readiness gaps.

Mark Carney and Xi Jinping announced a new Canada–China strategic partnership following talks in Beijing, signalling a reset in relations centred on trade, energy, and climate cooperation. The deal includes clean-energy collaboration, reduced barriers for Canadian agriculture, and limited Chinese EV imports tied to joint-venture investment in Canada’s auto supply chain. Supporters welcomed the progress, while critics warned of risks to Canadian jobs and U.S. trade relations.

Birkenstock said tariffs will weigh more heavily on margins in fiscal 2026 after front-loading shipments and price increases softened the impact in 2025. The company expects a roughly 100-basis-point hit to margins and EBITDA, saying it will not fully pass costs to consumers. Instead, it plans selective pricing, supply-chain efficiencies, and faster Asia-Pacific growth to reduce U.S. tariff exposure.

A Stifel survey shows Canadian spending intentions eased in January, with weaker sentiment among women, younger shoppers, and lower-income consumers amid trade tensions, inflation, and rising unemployment. Still, 54% expect to increase discretionary spending over the next year, pointing to cautious but resilient confidence. Pet care, furniture, toys, and powersports remain strong, while dollar stores and air travel show rising price sensitivity.

A Telsey Advisory Group report shows net retail store openings rose just 0.7% in 2025, as tariffs and economic uncertainty slowed expansion. Growth is expected to rebound in 2026, with store counts projected to rise 1.4%, led by off-price, beauty, discount, and select apparel banners, while luxury and department stores continue to close. Retail bankruptcies are freeing prime locations for stronger operators.

At the National Retail Federation’s 2026 Big Show, retail leaders said AI is becoming embedded across merchandising, discovery, and operations, with many pushing faster adoption despite readiness gaps. Partnerships such as Walmart’s work with Google’s Gemini reflect growing reliance on external platforms, alongside concerns over data control and customer ownership. Leaders broadly agree AI should enhance human judgment and operational decision-making, not replace it.

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NLS Logistics Team Communications
As a leading Third Party Logistics (3PL) firm, we have the strategic infrastructure, technology relationships, and insights to help Canadian and international brands reach and serve the Canadian market
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