Inflation impacts back-to-school, online fraud rises, and Deloitte forecasts modest holiday growth

Ian Sinclair

Ian Sinclair

EVP, Commercial Solutions

ISinclair@nls.ca

National Logistics Services
150 Courtneypark Drive West
Mississauga, Ontario

In turbulent economic times, a true logistics partner can scale up, optimize and help your fast-moving enterprise adapt and thrive. 

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Recently in Logistics: Inflation rates have affected 73% of back-to-school shoppers, PacSun is dealing with an increase in fraudulent returns, Deloitte predicts holiday sales will only grow from 2.3% to 3.3%, Retailers are turning to AI and social media, with 57% of U.S. retailers boosting their ad spend and new eCommerce trends are pointing to more intuitive AI-driven shopping, and an enhanced return processes. Learn more by reading our latest logistics update

As back-to-school shopping ends, 73% of consumers have felt the impact of inflation. Parents are reusing items and buying second-hand to save, while electronics purchases have dropped. Store visits to Walmart and Dollarama stay high for value and convenience. Only 3% of shoppers prioritize sustainability, focusing more on affordability and quick, cost-effective shopping.

PacSun saw a rise in fraudulent returns this year, with one case involving $24,000 worth of bogus items. Fraudsters manipulate return labels and share tips on Telegram, tricking retailers into issuing refunds for empty packages. In 2023, over $100 billion in merchandise was fraudulently returned. Retailers are now tightening return policies and taking legal action to fight back.

Deloitte predicts holiday sales growth of 2.3% to 3.3% from November to January, slower than last year’s 4.3% but still positive. Total sales could reach $1.59 trillion, with ecommerce driving growth, expected to rise 7% to 9%. Inflation, while easing, still impacts consumer spending, with savings down and credit card debt rising. Retailers focusing on value and convenience will benefit from consumer loyalty this season.

A new report from Fiverr shows retailers are boosting AI and social media strategies for the holidays, with 57% of U.S. retailers investing in social media ads. Key concerns include inflation and staffing shortages, but retailers are also offering deeper discounts. Gen-Z is a key target, with 54% using TikTok shop, and 68% of businesses using AI to streamline operations.

In 2024, e-commerce will evolve with intuitive shopping experiences powered by generative AI, the growing influence of the TikTok economy, and revamped return processes. Consumers now expect personalized online shopping, hassle-free returns, and viral marketing from social media platforms like TikTok. These trends highlight the need for brands to stay ahead with new technologies, cater to digital consumers, and improve customer loyalty.

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NLS Logistics Team Communications
As a leading Third Party Logistics (3PL) firm, we have the strategic infrastructure, technology relationships, and insights to help Canadian and international brands reach and serve the Canadian market
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